In this paper we use recent developments on threshold autoregressive (TAR) models that allow us to derive endogenously threshold effects in the evolution of the Spanish budget deficit. Specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the budget deficit should be expected once such threshold...

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar los posibles efectos que sobre los gastos de capital de los municipios españoles tendrá la normativa de estabilidad presupuestaria. Dicho análisis se va a realizar para los distintos estratos de población, ya que pueden existir divergencias relevantes...

El objetivo de este trabajo es modelar la evolución de los indicadores de incapacidad temporal. Disponer de modelos capaces de aproximar cuál será la evolución temporal de los indicadores económicos de baja laboral resulta clave por múltiples aspectos. Por un lado, permite tomar medidas de...

This paper presents an optimal fiscal policy response to address the basic tradeoff between the automatic stabilisation properties of budgets and the long run fiscal positions. The framework is an overlapping generations model `a la Weil (1989), extended to account for stochastic endowments and...

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el impacto que la entrada de inmigrantes tendrá sobre las cuentas de las Administraciones Públicas andaluzas y sobre la sostenibilidad a largo plazo de las actuales políticas de gasto público en Andalucía. Para ello, realizamos diferentes simulaciones...

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in...

This paper explores the effects of several fiscal variables on regional economic growth in Spain over period 1965-1997. Panel estimates are provided for this sample. The results show that public consumption affects negatively growth, public investment exerts a positive (but non significant)...

This paper presents two versions of an applied general equilibrium model for the regional economy of Andalusia, Spain, that differ in the Public Sector behavior. We intend to exemplify the use of a model with these characteristics to analyze the impact that the reform of the personal income tax...

In this paper we re-examine the long-run sustainability of budget deficits, when fiscal policy is conducted as a nonlinear process. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between government...