Considerable research finds oil price shocks have had major effects on U.S. output and inflation. Several recent studies argue that the response of monetary policy-rather than the oil price shocks themselves-caused the fluctuations in economic activity. Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel show that an...

Changes in energy prices have had sizable but differing effects on economic activity across the United States. The composition of each state's economy largely determines how its employment responds to changes in energy prices. In this article, Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel use simulations based...

The Houston economy went from boom to bust to recovery during the 1980s. Expectations of oil prices at $50 per barrel and higher in the late 70s and early 80s stimulated hundreds of oil-related projects in the area. An oil-price decline, however, led the Houston economy into a sharp recession...

Low oil prices and rising oil imports have caused growing concern about U.S. vulnerability to oil-supply shocks. Mine K. Yucel and Carol Dahl devise a measure of vulnerability and use it to compare three policies that have been proposed to reduce U.S. vulnerability to oil-supply disruptions: a...

This article examines whether price indexes, such as the CPI, the PPI, and the implicit price deflator for GDP (PGDP), tell a consistent story about the general price level and inflation rate. To this end, Zsolt Becsi analyzes the time series properties of these indexes. He finds that the PGDP...

In this article, Joseph Haslag surveys both the theoretical results and the empirical evidence relating inflation to per capita real GDP growth. Theory yields mixed results: a permanent change in inflation can raise, lower, or have no impact on per capita output or its rate of growth. The...

In the financial press, productivity-related wages are often cited as an inflation indicator. For example, recently slow rates of wage growth have been noted as a factor that will keep inflation rates low in the future. While inflation and wage growth do appear to be highly correlated over...