In this second of two articles on the economic impact of fundamental tax reform, Gregory Huffman and Evan Koenig extend their earlier framework for analyzing how the adoption of a flat-rate consumption tax would affect the economy over time. They argue that if tax reform is to be successful in...

The IS-LM diagram was developed as a tool for analyzing Keynesian economies-economies with "sticky" prices and myopic households. In a series of two articles, Evan Koenig shows that a graphical apparatus similar to the traditional IS-LM diagram can be used to analyze economies that have...

Evan Koenig presents a model that has proved successful at reproducing the pattern of M2 growth over the first half of the decade of the 1990s. The model suggests that a large gap between long-term bond yields and M2 deposit rates contributed importantly to the slow money growth that persisted...

In this article, Evan Koenig derives the optimal monetary policy rule for an economy with contractual wage agreements. The optimal rule has the monetary authority target a weighted average of aggregate output and the price level. In a realistic special case, the optimal rule calls for the...

The IS-LM diagram was developed as a tool for analyzing Keynesian economies-economies with sticky prices and myopic households. In Part 1 of this article, Evan Koenig showed how a graphical apparatus similar to the traditional IS-LM diagram can be used to analyze economies with a fixed capital...

In this article, Evan F. Koenig demonstrates that the Federal Reserve Board's initial estimate of manufacturing capacity utilization is helpful in predicting subsequent growth in manufacturing output. Together with lagged real-time output growth and growth in the composite index of leading...

Accurate forecasts of inflation are important to policymakers and to individuals who must make decisions on the basis of expectations about the future purchasing power of the dollar. ; Recent research on forecasting inflation has shown that interest rates, by themselves, may provide useful...

When economists are concerned that the economy may be about to change direction, one of the indicators to which they give special scrutiny is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management. This article discusses the construction and...

In this article Evan Koenig looks at measures of the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and discusses why short-term interest rates will almost certainly have to increase at some point. The article also examines the historical relationship between Federal Reserve policy, inflation and resource...