Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively...

Florian Auinger highlights the core weaknesses and sources of criticism regarding the VIX Index as an indicator for the future development of financial market volatility. Furthermore, it is proven that there is no statistically significant causal relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. As...

I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation for nominal and real variables. I document an immoderation in corporate balance sheet variables so that the Great Moderation is best described as a period of divergent patterns in volatilities for real, nominal and financial variables. A...

As technology advancement has increased, so to have computational applications for forecasting, modelling and trading financial markets and information, and practitioners are finding ever more complex solutions to financial challenges. Neural networking is a highly effective, trainable...

This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the ways that politics and financial markets impact one another. In this relationship, politics is the ultimate controlling force. The kinds and prices of financial instruments that get traded and the individuals and institutions that get to trade...

Financial regulation has dramatically evolved and strengthened since the crisis on both sides of the Atlantic, with enhanced international coordination through the G-20 and the Financial Stability Board and, at the regional level, a definite contribution from the European Union. However the new...

This book examines the volatile landscape of the Chinese economy and the barriers to its continuing development. The author argues that underlying inefficiencies in China’s financial system currently prevent the further growth of its institutions and inhibit reform of monetary and fiscal...

This book presents an ethical theory for financial transactions that underpins the stability of modern economies. It combines elements from history, ethics, economics and mathematics to show how these combined can be used to develop a pragmatic theory of financial markets. Written in three...

This book examines various facets of the development process such as aid, poverty, caste networks, corruption, and judicial activism. It explores the efficiency of and distributional issues related to agriculture, and the roles of macro models and financial markets, with a special emphasis on...