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Optimal Prudential Regulation of Banks and the Political Economy of Supervision
Tressel, Thierry; Verdier, Thierry - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
We consider a moral hazard economy in banks and production to study how incentives for risk taking are affected by the quality of supervision. We show that low interest rates may generate excessive risk taking. Because of a pecuniary externality, the market equilibrium may not be optimal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790384
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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy
Ermolaev, Igor; Juillard, Michel; Carabenciov, Ioan; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263685
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The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited
Meredith, Guy; Ma, Yue - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002
from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate … correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum …" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263741
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On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263898
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A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns
Negro, Marco Del; Brooks, Robin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
We estimate a latent factor model that decomposes international stock returns into global, country-, and industry-specific shocks and allows for stock-specific exposures to these shocks. We find that across stocks there is substantial dispersion in these exposures, which is partly explained by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263928
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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices
Juillard, Michel; Freedman, Charles; Korshunov, Dmitry; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264080
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Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Timmermann, Allan; Catão, Luis; Aiolfi, Marco - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264082
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The Perils of Tax Smoothing; Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output
Tanner, Evan; Carey, Kevin Joseph - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264166
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A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU Application to the Czech Republic
Benes, Jaromir; Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper presents a multivariate (MV) methodology for obtaining measures of excess demand that can facilitate discussion of monetary policy issues and improve policy decisions. Using data for the Czech Republic, a growing economy undergoing major structural change, it shows how the use of more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264226
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Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Wu, Tao; Cavallo, Michele - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650637