Assessing the state of an economy is not an easy task and generally involves interpreting myriad and sometimes contradictory indicators. In 2007 the authors unveiled a dynamic common factor model, dubbed the D6 Factor, for the economy of the Sixth Federal Reserve District. This model combined...

Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries' vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound...

This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF's Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF's financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distribution measures (CDMs) to capture tail risks, concentrations, variations in...

There is a vast body of literature estimating the impact of financial development on economic growth, inequality, and economic stability. A typical empirical study approximates financial development with either one of two measures of financial depth - the ratio of private credit to GDP or stock...