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Implications of recent US energy trends for trade forecasts
Hakkio, Craig S.; Nie, Jun - In: Economic review 99 (2014) 4, pp. 29-51
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391670
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The Impacts of Renminbi Appreciation on Trades Flows and Reserve Accumulation in a Monetary Trade Model
Whalley, John - 2010
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759718
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The global transmission of U.S. monetary policy
Degasperi, Riccardo; Hong, Seokki Simon; Ricco, Giovanni - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013543155
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How macroeconomic imbalances interact? : evidence from a panel VAR analysis
Gnimassoun, Blaise; Mignon, Valérie - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010236007
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Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate
Ravn, Morten O. - 2007
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776197
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Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates : Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2010
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760681
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554
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Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment
Dooley, Michael P.; Folkerts-Landau, David; Garber, Peter M. - 2021
In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244773
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Does asymmetric nonlinear approach explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade of Iran?
Karimi, Mohammad Sharif; Ghodsi, Mahdi; Stehrer, Robert - 2020
Until 2012, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) used its policy rate to stabilise the rial's exchange rate and, given a persistent current-account surplus, had accumulated sizeable currency reserves. In 2012, however, international sanctions against Iran intensified and the value of the rial halved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285456
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The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s : A Personal View
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2021
The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231211