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reasons:(1) the shocks are serially correlated arid hence partially forecast able from their past history, (2) each trader … an infinite regress problem in expectations associated with their desire to forecast the beliefs of others, the beliefs …
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This paper studies tests of predictability in regressions with a given AR(1) regressor and an asset return dependent variable measured over a short or long horizon. The paper shows that when there is a persistent predictable component in the return, an increase in the horizon may increase the R2...
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for assets will remain high when the baby boomers retire. Based on his forecast of continued high demand for capital …
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