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Measuring the origins of macroeconomic uncertainty
Mumtaz, Haroon - 2018
This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty that can be attributed to specific structural shocks. This enables researchers to investigate the "origin" of a change in overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895010
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Risk management with thinly traded securities : methodology and implementation
Bernales, Alejandro; Beuermann, Diether W.; Cortazar, … - 2013
risk measures for portfolios with infrequently traded securities have not been explored in the literature. We propose a … methodology to calculate market risk measures based on the Kalman filter which can be used on incomplete datasets. We implement … applied to other markets with thinly traded securities. Our methodology provides reliable market risk measures in portfolios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303812
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Risk allocation under liquidity constraints
Csóka, Péter; Herings, Peter Jean-Jacques - 2014
Risk allocation games are cooperative games that are used to attribute the risk of a financial entity to its divisions …. In this paper, we extend the literature on risk allocation games by incorporating liquidity considerations. A liquidity … financial entity may have to liquidate part of its assets, which is costly. The definition of a risk allocation game under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010350439
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Higher-order risk vulnerability
Huang, James; Stapleton, Richard C. - In: Economic theory : official journal of the Society for … 63 (2017) 2, pp. 387-406
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011723590
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Systematic systemic stress tests
Breuer, Thomas; Summer, Martin - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984002
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A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR
Mumtaz, Haroon - 2018
This paper introduces a VAR with stochastic volatility in mean where the residuals of the volatility equations and the observation equations are allowed to be correlated. This implies that exogeneity of shocks to volatility is not assumed apriori and structural shocks can be identified ex-post...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812167
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Fat-tails in VAR models
Chiu, Ching Wai Jeremy; Mumtaz, Haroon; Pinter, Gabor - 2014
We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
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A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR : an updated algorithm
Mumtaz, Haroon - 2020
In this note we present an updated algorithm to estimate the VAR with stochastic volatility proposed in Mumtaz (2018). The model is re-written so that some of the Metropolis Hastings steps are avoided.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243290
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Insurance and propagation in village networks
Kinnan, Cynthia; Krislert Samphantharak; Townsend, Robert M. - 2020
In village economies, insurance networks are key to smoothing shocks, while production networks can propagate them. The interplay of these networks is crucial. We show that a significant health expenditure shock to one household propagates to other linked households via supply-chain and labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012587539
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Measuring value-at-risk for mortgage backed securities
Jakobsen, Svend - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000922088