Simpson, Paul W; Osborn, Denise R; Sensier, Marianne - In: Economica 68 (2001) 270, pp. 243-67
This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov-switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential...
