Macroeconomic models that are based on either the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) or behavioral considerations share a core premise: All future market outcomes can be characterized ex ante with a single overarching probability distribution. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of...

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...

The importance of replicating economic research to improve the validity of findings has been the topic of an ongoing discussion, but there is not a consensus about what that means in practice. This article discusses a rationale for replicating a study and offers a plan of how one might go about...

In 2011, the Annual Report of the Editor of the American Economic Review reported that the journal's data-code archive was functioning well, and no changes were made to the archive rules. This was based on an audit of the archive that the Editor had commissioned. In point of fact, all was not...

Despite the formal rigour that attends social and economic measurement, the substantive meaning of particular measures could be compromised in the absence of a clear and coherent conceptualization of the phenomenon being measured. A case in point is afforded by the status of a focus-axiom in the...

The authours use information gathered from 122 studies on the effects of high school diplomas on wages in different countries worldwide to carry out a meta-analysis that shows high school diplomas have a statistically significant effect on wages of nearly 8%. This effect varies whether the...

The author argues that researchers should do replications using preanalysis plans. These plans should specify at least three characteristics that would act as stopping rules for the replicator: (1) how much flowtime the replicator will spend, (2) how much money and effort (working hours) the...

The distinction of risk vs uncertainty as made by Knight has important implications for policy selection. Assuming the former when the latter is relevant can lead to wrong decisions. With the aid of a stylized model that describes a bank's decision on how to allocate loans, the authors discuss...

A meta-analysis (MA) aggregates estimated effects from many studies to calculate a single, overall effect. There is no one, generally accepted procedure for how to do this. Several estimators are commonly used, though little is known about their relative performance. A complication arises when...

The authors propose a new method for estimating the power-law exponents of firm size variables. Their focus is on how to empirically identify a range in which a firm size variable follows a power-law distribution. On the one hand, as is well known a firm size variable follows a power-law...