We develop a sovereign default risk index using natural language processing techniques and 10 million news articles covering over 100 countries. The index is a highfrequency measure of countries' default risk, particularly for those lacking marketbased measures: it correlates with sovereign CDS...

In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...

Public debt is a very weak predictor of a country's credit rating if a country's other features are not taken into account. However, everything else equal, more public debt is associated with worse ratings. This paper explores the relationship between debt and sovereign creditworthiness by...

We use the 2021 vintage of the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) which contains a detailed set of questions regarding the nature of the policy support to firms during the COVID-19 crisis. Matched with hard data on the balance sheets and Profit and Loss (P&L) statements of corporations, the survey...

Firm investment, Intangible assets, Loan terms, Credit constraint, Survey data, Instrumental variable approachUsing European firm-level data from a new survey, the EIBIS, we document the effect of bank loan terms on investment in intangible assets of non-financial corporations. We show that...

The COVID-19 shock hit firms hard, on average, but how did it hit in the distribution of firms, differently between the high-growth superstars and the firms that were already struggling to survive? This paper implements graphical techniques and quantile regression to analyse the effect of the...

We construct a new indicator of de facto financial integration in the EU. The resulting indicator is pro-cyclical as it evolves along the cyclical pattern of economic activity in the European Union. It is then appended to a set of relevant financial and macroeconomic variables, within a FAVAR...

This paper investigates the determinants of nominal exchange rates, their volatility, and crash risk in Africa's lower and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs). It combines macro-panel estimations for 15 African LLMICs with floating or lightly managed exchange rates, with insights from 13...