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Currency Area and Non-synchronized Business Cycles between the US and Puerto Rico

Sobrino, Cesar; Heath, Ellis - In: Economics Bulletin 33 (2013) 3, pp. 1948-1958

Frankel and Rose (1997, 1998) state that greater intensity of trading leads to more highly correlated business cycles across countries. Since 2005 Puerto Rico, which belongs to the US currency area, has suffered from economic stagnation. This raises the issue of whether currency areas lead to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681099

Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors

Bec, Frederique; Bessec, Marie - In: Economics Bulletin 33 (2013) 3, pp. 2209-2222

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to 2011q4. Our empirical findings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691435

Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete

Karnizova, Lilia - In: Economics Bulletin 33 (2013) 2, pp. 1146-1158

This note uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with direct preferences for financial wealth to explore how stock price booms and busts relate to the real side of the economy. It evaluates the 'speculative' (sunspots) and 'news' (anticipated future changes in productivity)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010658620

Economic Conditions and Japanese Firm Financing

Yamashiro, Guy; Uesugi, Iichiro - In: Economics Bulletin 5 (2006) 12, pp. 1-17

This paper investigates the role played by non-financial firms in Japanese corporate financing. We find that non-financial firms are an important source of credit for both small and large firms in Japan. We also document that adverse real and financial shocks have similar effects on small and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010629630

Stylized Facts of Prices and Interest Rates over the Business Cycle

Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna; Tsionas, Eftymios; … - In: Economics Bulletin 29 (2009) 4, pp. 2613-2627

This paper investigates the stylized facts of prices and interest rates over the business cycles in nine OECD countries using quarterly data from 1960 to 2004. We examine the stylized facts used various detrending methods. Our findings confirm the existence of substantive cyclical regularities...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562859

Dollar depreciations and monthly local employment in three Midwestern states: Evidence from time-series and cointegration analysis

Hegerty, Scott W - In: Economics Bulletin 35 (2015) 1, pp. 291-297

local employment. Using current data, this study first examines business-cycle concordance and synchronization and finds … that there is relatively weak correlation between local employment either with cities' small neighbors or their states …, including the major metro areas, do indeed see increased employment following a dollar depreciation. Those cities that do not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011199650

What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?

Sahut, Jean-michel; Mili, Medhi; Teulon, Frédéric - In: Economics Bulletin 32 (2012) 3, pp. 2464-2480

, particularly during periods of recession. Changes in stock market index and yield slope have asymmetric effects on real growth. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278749

Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal

Bates, Samuel; Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane - In: Economics Bulletin 34 (2014) 2, pp. 951-965

Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study analyzes the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835797

Forecasting Exchange Rates using Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregressions

Huber, Florian - In: Economics Bulletin 34 (2014) 3, pp. 1687-1695

In this paper we assess the predictive abilities of a Bayesian threshold vector autoregression (B-TVAR) to forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate. By introducing stochastic search variable selection priors (SSVS), we account for the inherent model uncertainty when it comes to modeling exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884990

The Relationship of the value of the Dollar, and the Prices of Gold and Oil: A Tale of Asset Risk

Kim, Myeong Hwan; Dilts, David A. - In: Economics Bulletin 31 (2011) 2, pp. 1151-1162

This paper investigates the relationship between the value of the dollar and the prices of two commodities, gold and oil. Granger causality is used on monthly data from January of 1970 through July of 2008. The empirical results show that the hypothesis that there is no causal relation between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643082

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