This paper develops two nonlinear cointegration models - a VECM with structural shift and a threshold cointegration model - applied to carbon spot and futures prices. The results extend the previous findings by Chevallier (2010), who studied this topic with a linear VECM. First, in the VECM with...

This article develops a forecasting exercise of the volatility of EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices (modeled after an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)) using two dynamic factors as exogenous regressors that were extracted from a Factor Augmented VAR model (Bernanke et al. (2005)). The dataset...

Previous literature has studied the empirical characteristics of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) time series by using vector autoregression, impulse response function, and cointegration analysis (Chevallier (2010)). This paper extends the analysis by...