In this study, we set up a framework to generate the forecasts of growth in aggregate demand and its components using real-time data. In general, these forecasts (for 1983-2008) accurately predict directional change under symmetric loss and are thus of value to a user who assigns similar cost...

In this study, we set up a framework to generate the forecasts of growth in aggregate demand and its components using real-time data. In general, these forecasts (for 1983-2008) accurately predict directional change under symmetric loss and are thus of value to a user who assigns similar cost...

This paper examines the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between commodity price indices and macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index (CPI) and the industrial production index (IP) in the Euro zone. We use monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011 and...

We present empirical evidence regarding differences in unemployment dynamics across gender for a group of twenty-three OECD countries. Our results indicate that there are substantial differences in the unemployment persistence for men and women across countries. Further, the female unemployment...

Using recently-available data from the New Immigrant Survey, we find that previous self-employment experience in an immigrant's country of origin is an important determinant of self-employment status in the U.S., increasing the probability of being self-employed by about 7 percent relative to an...

In this paper, we document the intensive and extensive margin adjustments of labor market in Turkey and US. We find that both margins are important. More interestingly, the weight of intensive margin adjustment does not differ substantially between the two countries. Common wisdom and some...

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is one of the key variables to which economists pay considerable attention for assessing US economic activities, particularly, business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Although the PMI has been used to assess the US economy, there is hardly any...

Time-to-build completion rates can be estimated individually, under the restrictions that they are positive values summing up to one. As an alternative strategy, we may use the beta distribution as a restriction and calculate the corresponding completion rates collectively. The estimation...

This paper investigates the effect of confidence on the Japanese economy by using vector autoregressions. Especially, I divide the total estimation period into two parts, pre- and post-bubble periods, and analyze the transition of that effect through the ages. It is shown that consumer...

Following a positive technology shock, a flexible price monetary model with catching up with the Joneses utility function can easily generate a negative and persistent decline in employment. When the effect of relative consumption is large, the model also produces a small short run response of...