In this study, we attempt to estimate the long term determinants of international reserves in the emerging Asian for the period 1980-2011. In this study, we attempt to estimate the long term determinants of international reserves in the emerging Asia for the period 1980-2011. Utilizing a...

This paper considers an environment where investors have limited knowledge of true systematic risks and therefore continuously re-estimate the forecasting model that they use to form expectations. Based on a parsimonious specification with learning and no conditioning information, I extract...

This paper estimates the trade effects of WAMZ between 2005 and 2010 using the gravity model. In addition, it also estimates the determinants of bilateral trade flows in WAMZ countries. The paper finds that WAMZ has been trade diverting although country specific analysis reveals that individual...

In this article, we explore the dynamic interdependence between gold and other financial markets by using an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. The asymmetry in the dynamic conditional correlation is not recognized in many pair-wise assets and complimentary asymmetry is recognized...

In this paper, we extend the work of Hamori (2008) to include three main innovations: (i) we consider an open economy version of money demand which is more representative for small open economies like those in SSA; (ii) we consider both the homogenous and heterogeneous panel cointegration methods...

A corporate rating is an opinion from a rating agency about the debt payment capacity and willingness to pay of a private issuer. In principle, ratings issued by a third party should be unbiased and provide private information on credit quality to the market. Yet many researchers argue that such...

This study attempts to estimate disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey, for the period from 1989 to 2012 in quarterly data set. In this context, we examine short-run and long-run disaggregated import demand functions for capital goods, intermediate inputs and consumption goods by using...

In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models. For a...

This paper presents a recently developed approach for evaluating economic forecasts. Previously, univariate methods were used to evaluate the forecasts of individual variables. However, many macroeconomic variables are forecast at the same time to describe the state of the economy. It is,...

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.