This paper examines the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between commodity price indices and macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index (CPI) and the industrial production index (IP) in the Euro zone. We use monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011 and...

This paper studies how introducing habit formation to the two-sector small open economy model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) and Lane (1997) affects the impact of a monetary surprise on welfare. In this model with endogenous habit formation, we examine agents' responses to a monetary expansion...

Monetary policy design in currency unions faces more challenging scenarios like the presence of asymmetric shocks and the higher probability of time inconsistency. An evaluation of the union welfare under a monetary rule and under discretion in these circumstances is carried out. Assuming that...

This research reviews the effects of fiscal expenditures on economic output in a non-linear fashion for the Barbados economy. Using the Markov-Switching methodology, fiscal expenditure multipliers are estimated for each stage of the business cycle. The data indicates that a three-regime model is...

After experiencing high and persistent inflation for more than two decades, Turkey is entering a period of single-digit inflation again. Following a summary of the macroeconomic developments occurred since the early 1970s, this paper attempts to survey the empirical literature both on the...

A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is applied to determine the effects of a rise in US government expenditure on the United States and Canadian economies. The results obtained reasonably characterize the effect of a rise in US government spending to the United States and...

After experiencing high and persistent inflation for more than two decades, Turkey is entering a period of single-digit inflation again. Following a summary of the macroeconomic developments occurred since the early 1970s, this paper attempts to survey the empirical literature both on the...

This study shows that replacing the traditional measure of asymmetry that is skewness in the inflation forecasting model with an alternative asymmetry measure that captures the joint influence of both skewness and variance on inflation significantly improves the forecast at various horizons. The...

This paper analyzes the relationship between the output gap and inflation. This study uses a newly proposed flexible data-driven measure of the output gap and finds that such a distance weight-based measure of the ex-ante output gap (WAgap), has a significant and better in-sample relation with...

This paper uses the BOJ index published by the Bank of Japan to empirically analyze the relationship between the commodity price index and macroeconomic variables in Japan. The BOJ index was found to be valid as a leading indicator of the consumer price index before the zero interest policy was...