In this paper we assess the predictive abilities of a Bayesian threshold vector autoregression (B-TVAR) to forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate. By introducing stochastic search variable selection priors (SSVS), we account for the inherent model uncertainty when it comes to modeling exchange...

Speculative attacks are often modeled as decreases in money demand before currency crises. I discuss how, in models with microfoundations, within-period timing affects whether attacks arise in equilibrium. “Cash-when-I'm-done” timing always generates attacks, but is controversial because it...

This paper investigates the relationship between international interest rate differentials and the risk premium during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. Variables standing for the accumulation of imbalances in the monetary sector are used as proxies for the risk premium. We show,using a Vector Error...

Speculative attacks are often modeled as decreases in money demand before currency crises. I discuss how, in models with microfoundations, within-period timing affects whether attacks arise in equilibrium. “Cash-when-I'm-done†timing always generates attacks, but is controversial...

This paper investigates the relationship between international interest rate differentials and the risk premium during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. Variables standing for the accumulation of imbalances in the monetary sector are used as proxies for the risk premium. We show,using a Vector Error...

The association between long and short interest rates is traditionally envisaged from a purely domestic perspective, where it is believed an empirical regularity. Hence, the weakening of this relationship in the first half of the 2000s has represented a conundrum, calling for a reassessment of...

This investigation puts the interest rate pass-through mechanism from policy to deposit rates in the EMU under closer scrutiny. By using the newly developed nonlinear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2011), we are able to estimate asymmetric long-run as well as short-run coefficients. Previous...