In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models. For a...

This study extends the GARCH with autoregressive conditional jump intensity in Generalized Error Distribution (GARJI-GED) model to identify the fundamental characteristics of Nikkei 225 index and futures. Furthermore, this study applied the Granger causality test to investigate whether an...

This paper discusses pitfalls in the application of the rolling trace test. This procedure is based on the iterative calculation of Johansen's (1988) trace test for the rank of a cointegration system in windows of equal length that roll over the sample. Pitfalls lie in the selection of the...

This paper proposes a comparison of three nonlinear error-correction models to account for the asymmetric and slow adjustment dynamics of the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate over a long period (1957-2002). We conclude that two NEC models adequately describe the nonlinear mean-reverting...

The dramatic rise of house prices in many cities of China has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. There is a huge debate on whether the increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or just by speculation. Like Levin and Wright (1997a, 1997b), we...

The annual structure of the Spanish real GDP is investigated in this article by means of fractional integration techniques. The results show that the series can be specified in terms of an I(d) process with d smaller than one and thus showing long memory and mean-reverting behaviour.

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the short-term French GDP forecasting. This tool allows to nowcast the quarterly GDP growth in France for the current quarter, based on the monthly business surveys in the industrial and services sectors. We use an automatic model selection procedure...

We prove weak exogeneity is an not an impossibility with an ADL structure in the marginal and in the conditional. We show that joint stationarity requirements is driving such common belief

This study extends the GARCH with autoregressive conditional jump intensity in Generalized Error Distribution (GARJI-GED) model to identify the fundamental characteristics of Nikkei 225 index and futures. Furthermore, this study applied the Granger causality test to investigate whether an...

A bootstrap algorithm proposed by Psaradakis (2001) for hypothesis testing in I(1) regressions is discussed and shown to be valid only under the null hypothesis. A simple correction making the procedure valid under both the null and the alternative hypothesis is proposed.