This paper studies the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and trade balance for India by using monthly data covering the period from January 1980 to December 2011 and the post current account convertibility era (from August 1994 to December 2011). To analyse the issue, we adopt the...

What market (spot or future) reflects news first? This question is investigated with Granger causality and Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test in the frequency domain for Brazilian stock market. The results differ depending on which index (ETF, exchange traded funds, or the spot index)...

We propose to estimate heteroskedastic dynamic factor models using the Kalman filter, where the state vector is augmented with the heteroskedastic disturbances. Although this model is not conditionally Gaussian, Monte Carlo results show that parameters can be accurately estimated.

In applied research, the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the F-test might yield different inferences about the causal relationships being investigated. This paper examines the relationship between the BIC and the F-tests in the context of Granger-causality tests. We calculate...

There are four-parameter income distribution models that have good reputation for goodness-of-fit. In contrast, the existing models with five or more parameters fail to achieve a satisfactory level of goodness-of-fit. We propose a new seven-parameter model that is empirically shown to be...

This paper discusses Bayesian procedures for factor selection in dynamic term structure models through simulation methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The number of factors, besides influencing the fitting and prediction of observed yields, is also relevant to features such as the...

The aim of the paper is to consider the problem of selecting the number of breaks in the mean of a time series. Indeed, we prove analytically and show by a Monte Carlo study that some model selection criteria will tend to choose a spuriously high number of structural breaks when the process is...

The aim of the paper is to consider the problem of selecting the number of breaks in the mean of a time series. Indeed, we prove analytically and show by a Monte Carlo study that some model selection criteria will tend to choose a spuriously high number of structural breaks when the process is...

In applied research, the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the F-test might yield different inferences about the causal relationships being investigated. This paper examines the relationship between the BIC and the F-tests in the context of Granger-causality tests. We calculate...