Using 20 years of Australian quarterly data, this paper decomposes Australian share prices into their fundamental and speculative components. To do this we derive the fundamental share-price-output ratio and, hence, the fundamental share price from a resticted vector-autoregressive model...

Using 54 yeras of US quarterly data and a VAR model underpinned by a theory of the relationship between stock prices and output, this paper considers the deviations of US stock prices from their fundamental value. To do this we derive the fundamental price-output ratio and the fundamental stock...

Using theoretical foundations, VAR restrictions are imposed allowing demand and supply sources of output movement to be distinguished and the effects of their shocks on stock prices to be analysed. Stock prices are sensitive to all shocks although the influence from the real economy to the stock...

Using Australian capital city data from 1984Q3-2008Q2, this paper utilizes a dynamic present value model within a VAR framework to construct time series of house prices depicting what aggregate house prices should be given expectations of future real disposable income – the ‘fundamental...