This study shows that China’s Consumer Expectation Index contains useful information about pure expectation shocks, which are unrelated to economic fundamentals. It turns out that such shocks are likely to be an important independent driver of industrial output growth.

This paper takes a deeper look at the measurement of the consumption–wealth ratio and analyzes its ability to capture variations in expected future stock returns. I find evidence of stock return predictability by taking a different approach than predictive regressions.

Standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run. Assuming standard parameters, the neoclassical model predicts that 2% of annual productivity growth leads to a 99% decline in the labor supply after 624 years. Yet, this contradicts the fact...

In a Barro-type economy with exogenous consumption aspirations, raising income taxes favors growth even in the presence of lump-sum taxes. Such a policy is compatible with the behavior of private consumption, income taxes and growth rates observed in actual economies.

This paper characterizes a class of regularly varying production functions with an asymptotic elasticity of substitution equal to one. In particular, it is shown that these functions asymptotically approximate the Cobb–Douglas form. The results generalize and unify existing results in the...

Sarlin (2013) suggests that if a loss function approach is chosen to derive the optimal threshold for financial crisis early warning indicators, the loss function specification should explicitly take into account the unconditional sample crisis probability. In this comment we argue that this...

This paper examines sustainability of an inflation-targeting policy regime in terms of sustainable equilibrium using a canonical model in the recent literature. Overly flexible inflation targeting is not sustainable. Strict inflation targeting is sustainable only when shock persistence is high...

We examine the effect of remittance outflows on inflation in the remitting countries. The growth of remittance outflows depresses inflation rate.

We assess government solvency in the European Monetary Union (EMU), controlling for the interaction of fiscal policy with financial markets. We find a positive interaction, reflecting market-based pressures for fiscal improvement, and significant debt stabilization efforts, weakened in the...

This paper shows that historical variables can explain a significant part of discretionary government spending across countries. We argue that these results provide evidence in favor of Besley and Persson’s (2009) hypothesis that institutional quality or state capacity is historically...