We extend the correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter to formulations with time-varying gains. Our correspondences hold exactly, in a computational implementation sense, and we discuss how they relate to previous approximate correspondences found in the literature.

This note presents a simple method for estimating the state vector of linearized DSGE models without using the Kalman filter. The conditional covariance matrix of the state vector is also derived. The method can easily cope with filtered data, and with arbitrary patterns of missing observations.

This note shows how conditional forecasts from identified VAR models can be computed using Kalman filtering techniques. These techniques are nowadays routine for applied macroeconomists, and hence the computation of conditional forecasts using these methods are simple to implement.

New estimates of an aggregate long-term production function for the post-war U.S. economy are reported. The results indicate that this long-term aggregate production function exhibits a slight but statistically significant increasing returns to scale. Since virtually all econometric growth...

We use US county-level data to estimate convergence rates for 22 individual states. We find significant heterogeneity. E.g., the California estimate is 19.9% and the New York estimate is 3.3%. Convergence rates are essentially uncorrelated with income levels.

We analyze whether landlocked regions are systematically poorer, using panel data for 1,527 regions in 83 nations from 1950-2014 and exploiting within-country-time variation. Lacking ocean access decreases regional GDP/capita by ≈13%. Specifically, coastal distance matters but not the length...

Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is...

We apply a recent quantile autoregression unit root test to US GDP. The test takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock. We find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks like the 2008/2009 crisis have...

We present the results of eight models that differ with respect to the time behavior of technical inefficiency and the presence of country heterogeneity. When taken into account, heterogeneity raises average technical change estimates, however technical progress rankings become counter-intuitive

Recent research has documented a U-shaped industrial concentration curve over an economy’s development path. How far can neoclassical trade theory take us in explaining this pattern? We estimate the production side of the Heckscher–Ohlin model using industry data on 44 developed and...