We propose an adaptive truncated product method that facilitates the selection of the truncation point among a set of candidates. To efficiently estimate the distribution of the proposed method when the p-values are correlated, we develop a single-layer bootstrap procedure.

While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...