Showing 1 - 10 of 197
macroeconomic predictors. I show that acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603109
It is well-known that economic and financial time series are characterized by nonlinearities. The literature does not agree, however, on the actual causes of such nonlinearities. In this paper, I investigate whether dynamics at different frequencies present different degree of nonlinearity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939503
We investigate the existence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of the returns of stock markets indices from CEE economies. We use several types of nonlinear tests. We discuss the implications of the results with respect to the efficient market hypothesis.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010572246
In an influential work by Diebold and Inoue (2001), the Markov switching model was shown to exhibit long memory, in terms of the behavior of the second moments of partial sums. The relationship between the Markov switching model and long memory is reexamined here. Common estimators of the long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784971
This article tests the linearity assumption underlying the popular heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV). We implement a consistent model specification test that is robust to both distributional and model misspecification. We find that, using a nonparametric HAR-RV...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939493
This paper applies the 0–1 test for chaos to returns from the German stock market, providing empirical evidence of chaotic structures in the returns of all DAX members. For noise reduction purposes, wavelet denoising is employed prior to the application of the 0–1 test.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041638
This paper contributes to the understanding of the non-linear causal linkage between investors’ sentiment dynamics and stock returns for the US economy. Employing the sentiment index developed by Baker and Wurgler [Baker, M., Wurgler, J., 2007. Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041641
The creation of a common cross-border stock trading platform is found, by use of a Flexible Dynamic Component Correlations (FDCC) model, to have increased long-run trends in conditional correlations between foreign and domestic stock market returns.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041879
This paper assesses duration-specific treatment effects of fixed currency regimes on bilateral trade along a duration path of up to 25 years. We find that country-pairs with fixed exchange rate regimes trade more, but only after about 8 years.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010664124
In this paper, we consider a model where producers set their prices based on their prediction of the aggregated price level and an exogenous variable, which can be a demand or a cost-push shock. To form their expectations, they use OLS-type econometric learning with bounded memory. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011263417