This paper considers the theoretical justifications of Lütkpohl’s (1988) test statistics when the data-generating process is relaxed to be a stationary ARFIMA process. Under suitable regularity conditions, we prove the applicability of Lütkpohl’s (1988) method to the stationary ARFIMA (p,...

In this paper, we consider a model where producers set their prices based on their prediction of the aggregated price level and an exogenous variable, which can be a demand or a cost-push shock. To form their expectations, they use OLS-type econometric learning with bounded memory. We show that...

Using the same data as Chow and Wang (2010) [Chow, Gregory C., Wang, Peng, 2010. The empirics of inflation in China. Economics Letters 109, 28–30], as well as a smooth transition regression model, this paper reconsiders the empirics of inflation in China. The estimated smooth transition error...

Since the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics.

If long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-term economic news. This letter introduces news-regressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of US inflation expectations. We confirm earlier evidence on the...

We explore the role of the cost channel in accounting for inflation persistence in the New Keynesian model with Calvo pricing. Hump-shaped responses of inflation to monetary shocks are obtained under purely nominal rigidities.

This work endeavors to study the long-range dependence of the international diamond market. The results from the modified R/S statistic suggest that diamond returns do not have long memory, while strong evidence is found for long memory in diamond volatilities.

We study the empirical behaviour of semi-parametric estimation for long-memory models when the true data generating process exhibits a change in persistence. Evidence for long memory is likely to be found. Procedures for discrimination between different models are proposed.

For a fractional time series model integrated of order d we derive two results. First, it is obtained how a change in d affects the coefficients of the integration filter. For long memory (d0), the effect is always positive; in the case of anti-persistence (d0) the effect may be positive or...

We show that the (Baillie and Chung, 2001) minimum distance estimates of the GARCH (1,1) model induce spurious persistence in the volatility when there are structural changes in the mean of the process.