We test for the presence of a unit root in U.S. GDP and CPI, allowing for non-linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis. In contrast to most previous results, we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables.

In this note, we use an out-of-sample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find that after the 'Great moderation,' the Granger-causal role of money appears to have vanished completely.

This paper investigates the relationship between Swedish unemployment and labour-force participation. Cointegration analysis supports a robust long-run relationship between the two variables. This finding puts the empirical relevance of the unemployment invariance hypothesis into question.

We evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations and find that they are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Concerning out-of-sample forecast precision, survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. Caution should accordingly be exercised when relying on these data...

The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness....