Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions. I find that each month on average 40%–50% of forecasters revise their forecasts. In addition, I find that the...

Estimation of the non-linear Constant Elasticity of Scale (CES) function is generally considered problematic due to convergence problems and unstable and/or meaningless results. These problems often arise from a non-smooth objective function with large flat areas, the discontinuity of the CES...

We examine asymmetry in the loss function of Japanese corporate executives in their output growth forecasts and test for rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function. We find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality under an asymmetric loss...

This paper extends the Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real-time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies. The results of the empirical application...

Recent literature has reported situations in which discretion dominates timeless perspective in the presence of elements that reduce the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Considering a model-consistent welfare metric inhibits this mechanism in the standard New Keynesian framework.

Housing prices diverge from construction prices after 1997 in four major countries. Besides, total-factor productivity (TFP) differences between construction and the general economy account for the evolution of construction prices in the US and Germany, but not in the UK and Spain.

Notwithstanding high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying...

A maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform is used to obtain time scale decompositions of economic forecasts and their errors. The generated time scale components can be used in loss measures and tests for comparing forecast accuracy to evaluate whether the forecasts accurately capture the...

This paper suggests using a unit t-value criterion in imposing restrictions on lags to formulate a subset vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the purpose of point forecasts. Among any other alternative models nested to the initial VAR model, this less restrictive modeling strategy produces the...

We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve’s May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its...