Ellison and Pearlman (2011) show that determinacy implies e-stability under both full and lagged information if (1) subjective expectations are consistent with a structural model and unbiased, and (2) a learning process is given by the saddlepath relationship. This study clarifies that their...

This paper shows that an asymmetric group debt contract, where one borrower co-signs for another, but not vice versa, leads to heterogeneous matching. The analysis suggests that micro finance organizations can achieve the first best by offering asymmetric group contracts.

This paper focuses on the size of the borrower group in group lending. We show that, when social ties in a community enhance borrowers’ incentives to exert effort, a profit-maximizing financier chooses a group of limited size. Borrowers that would be fundable under moral hazard but have...

We investigate the effects of predictable changes in TFP at the sectoral level. Our findings can reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings in the literature. Shocks to predictable changes in investment-sector TFP are also found important for US business cycle fluctuations.

We study a monetary model in which buyers choose search intensity and prices are considered as given in a decentralized market. We indicate that the Friedman rule may not be optimal.

We consider the effect of population age distribution in inclusive wealth accounting. Numerical results demonstrate that the wealth of nations with an aging demographic structure, as well as those with a rapidly increasing working-age generation, may have been overestimated.

This paper extends the eductive learning approach in settings with non-atomistic agents. It shows the connection between the characterization of rationalizable sets by Basu (1991) and the seminal result by Guesnerie (1992) in the context of Cournot oligopoly models.

We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...

We investigate a monetary model in which the centralized market opens once, but the decentralized markets open twice in each period. We show that there may be multiple stationary equilibria.

It is shown that rent-seeking contests with continuous and independent type distributions possess a unique pure-strategy Nash equilibrium.