Showing 1 - 10 of 144
This paper introduces nowcasting causality as the mixed-frequency version of instantaneous causality. We analyze the relationship between nowcasting and Granger causality in a mixed-frequency VAR and illustrate its impact on the significance of high-frequency variables in mixed-frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041595
A novel procedure is applied to test for switches between hysteresis and the natural rate theory over more than a century of UK and USA unemployment data. For both the countries we see a period conforming to hysteresis starting in the early 1920s for the UK and 1930 for USA.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011263414
The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence parameter are developed in a linear diffusion model under three sampling schemes, long-span, in-fill and double. Simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution gives a more accurate approximation to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208455
Wald/LM-type tests for a shift in mean often exhibit nonmonotonic power, due to incorrect estimation of long … experiments show that the modified tests have monotonic power against the mean with single or multiple breaks in finite samples. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011189494
based test and the t test have better power for testing the hypothesis of zero intercept in the explosive process than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011189545
We compare the asymptotic local power of upper-tail unit root tests against an explosive alternative based on ordinary … initialisation, the QD-based tests are near asymptotically efficient and generally offer superior power to OLS-based approaches …; however, the power gains are much more modest than in the lower-tail testing context. We also find that asymptotically non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729462
In this paper we extend the FMLS-based CUSUM cointegration test (Xiao and Phillips, 2002) for testing the smooth time-varying cointegration null hypothesis. For this purpose we use Chebyshev time polynomials to specify time-varying coefficients under the null. We derive the limiting distribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011076529
regressors are highly persistent. The reduced convergence rates may sometimes lead to power losses in finite samples when testing … for no predictability, for instance. The note discusses a simple way of improving the local power of IVX-based tests … the power loss of IVX would have been maximal compared to the infeasible OLS-based test. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933300
This article tests the linearity assumption underlying the popular heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV). We implement a consistent model specification test that is robust to both distributional and model misspecification. We find that, using a nonparametric HAR-RV...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939493
-centrality parameter leads to important empirical power gains compared to using the ordinary least squares (OLS-)detrending method when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041707