Panel data framework has often been used to build Early Warning Systems for financial crises. This paper questions the implicit assumption that crises are homogenously caused by identical factors. It suggests a preliminary step aiming at forming optimal country clusters.

In this paper, we consider a cointegrated panel data model with non-stationary common factors, which, because of its appeal in many economic applications, has received much attention in the recent literature. By deriving a Granger-type representation theorem, we obtain several equivalent model...

In an influential paper, Pesaran [Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica 74, 967–1012] proposes a very simple estimator of factor-augmented regressions that has since then become very popular. In this note...

VAR models with common cyclical features imply parsimonious univariate final equations, justifying the use of both time series aggregation, and homogenous panels with common factors and dynamic heterogeneity. However, conducting statistical inferences based on too restrictive models might be...

This paper introduces nowcasting causality as the mixed-frequency version of instantaneous causality. We analyze the relationship between nowcasting and Granger causality in a mixed-frequency VAR and illustrate its impact on the significance of high-frequency variables in mixed-frequency...