Using short-run expenditures from household surveys as a proxy may create attenuated estimates of the impact of permanent income on economic outcomes. We use repeated observations to calculate reliability ratios and estimate errors in variables regressions of the impact of income on nutrition....

I use a spatial Durbin model to estimate the effects of taxes on state economic growth. Results indicate that taxes have negative short-run and long-run own-state and spatial spillover effects on state growth.

This paper seeks to shed light on possible changes in the government debt dynamics for the first 12 euro area countries. Structural breaks are present around the global financial crisis for most countries, but not for Germany and France, the two core countries in the euro area. The properties of...

We study the effects of economic shocks on civil conflict at the subnational level using a panel dataset of 5689 administrative regions from 53 African countries with yearly observations from 1992 to 2010. We find that economic shocks, measured by nighttime light intensity and instrumented by...

We used the unobserved component model of Harvey (1989, 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve for the USA and Australia, augmenting it with the oil price. Our results show that while the coefficient of demand pressure and the intercept decreased, the coefficient of the oil price increased....

When estimating location choices, Poisson regressions and conditional logit models yield identical coefficient estimates (Guimarães et al., 2003). These econometric models involve polar assumptions as regards the similarity of the different locations. Schmidheiny and Brülhart (2011)...

In the linear instrumental variables model, we characterize fixed alternatives against which the test of overidentifying restrictions (OR) is inconsistent. When there is the notion of a “true parameter”, we relate this inconsistency result to the literature on optimality properties of...

The aggregation of individual random AR(1) models generally leads to an AR(∞) process. We provide two consistent estimators of aggregate dynamics based on either a parametric regression or a minimum distance approach for use when only macro data are available. Notably, both estimators allow us...

This letter evaluates forecasts from probit models that use the slope of the yield curve to forecast recessions. These models give reliable non-probabilistic warnings of recessions, but the estimated probabilities do not match the conditional frequency of recession months.

Using an empirical likelihood approach, we show that generalized linear models can still be consistently estimated even if dependent variables are not missing at random, and derive a Hausman test by comparing this estimator to the standard one.