Using the same data as Chow and Wang (2010) [Chow, Gregory C., Wang, Peng, 2010. The empirics of inflation in China. Economics Letters 109, 28–30], as well as a smooth transition regression model, this paper reconsiders the empirics of inflation in China. The estimated smooth transition error...

If long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-term economic news. This letter introduces news-regressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of US inflation expectations. We confirm earlier evidence on the...

Since the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics.

In this paper, we consider a model where producers set their prices based on their prediction of the aggregated price level and an exogenous variable, which can be a demand or a cost-push shock. To form their expectations, they use OLS-type econometric learning with bounded memory. We show that...

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 led to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The historical...

This paper studies empirically the dynamic interactions between asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. during the Volcker–Greenspan period. Results from a simple structural vector autoregression indicate that monetary policy reacts directly to the term spread and...

Introducing costs of entry in the product market into a New Keynesian model with Calvo-type price setting and non zero steady state inflation is a means to restore output costs of disinflation in the short run, before output gains in the long run.

Structural VAR studies disagree with narrative accounts about the history of monetary policy disturbances. We investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shocks as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We find that it does not.

The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis first documented by Romer (1993), that inflation is lower in more open economies. According to this hypothesis, central banks have a smaller incentive to engineer surprise inflations in economies that are more open because the Phillips curve is...

Yes, they are! We find that although there is a surprisingly high dispersion of individual forecasts and some dissent on the Federal Funds target, the FOMC’s individual behavior is well described by a Taylor-type rule.