We extend the correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter to formulations with time-varying gains. Our correspondences hold exactly, in a computational implementation sense, and we discuss how they relate to previous approximate correspondences found in the literature.

The purpose in this letter is to demonstrate, employing two parametric forms of the Markowitz model of utility, that heterogeneity of preferences of Markowitz agents can contribute towards an explanation of why lotteries typically have multiple rather than single prizes.

We demonstrate theoretically and illustrate the implications of assuming power utility when the true function is of the expo-power form. Empirical results can appear to be consistent with cumulative prospect theory when they are in fact generated from a Markowitz model.

A landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental-based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria (REE) that are not stable under adaptive learning. In this paper, we make a novel information assumption that private agents cannot...

A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

The single decision maker chooses one of the actions repeatedly. She chooses the action with the highest weighted average of the past payoffs. In the long run either the action with highest expected payoff or the action with highest minimal payoff is chosen depending on how weights evolve.

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...

Subjects who overestimate their performance in experimental tasks unrelated to travel are less willing to insure against failing in the task and also less inclined to buy travel insurance. This suggests intrinsic optimism influences insurance demand and diminishes adverse selection.

People have the natural tendency to be optimistic and believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to avoid overestimation that could result in bad decision-making. Brunnermeier, Brunnermeier and Parker (2005) and Brunnermeier et al. (2007) established an optimal...

The assumption that individual preferences are rational and consistent with standard economic theory is often appropriate, but may be optimistic if consumers are uncertain about either their preferences or how the market operates. Both sources of uncertainty may present themselves in lab...