In this paper, we consider a model where producers set their prices based on their prediction of the aggregated price level and an exogenous variable, which can be a demand or a cost-push shock. To form their expectations, they use OLS-type econometric learning with bounded memory. We show that...

This paper proposes to decompose non-linear models deduced from a latent regression framework using the latent dependent outcome as dependent variable and the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition technique. Values of the unobserved latent outcome are obtained using simulated residuals.

Using a panel of 53 primary-commodity exporting countries, we show that greater international financial integration reduces the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on real exchange rate volatility. This reduction is larger when we define financial integration as foreign direct investment.

The relationship between fiscal and financial euro area indicators and sovereign yield spreads has changed after the start of the financial crisis. Increased financial volatility has magnified the impact of fiscal conditions as drivers of sovereign risk, has widened the set of macroeconomic...

Using formal statistical tests, we detect (i) significant volatility increases for various types of capital flows for a period of changes in business cycle comovement among the G7 countries, and (ii) mixed evidence of changes in covariances and correlations with a set of macroeconomic variables.

We argue that evidence on whether floating exchange rates facilitate external adjustment is contradictory because existing regime classifications do not adequately capture exchange rate flexibility relevant to external adjustment. Using a trade-weighted bilateral exchange rate volatility...

This paper focuses on the effects of global factors on the saving–investment relationship. We prove that, if investments and savings are affected by idiosyncratic and global components, they must be cointegrated to obtain reliable estimates of the saving-retention coefficient. When global...

In this note it is shown that the expectation of the usual MLE estimator of the mean-reversion parameter in linear diffusion models does not exist. However, the moment does exist conditionally on the estimator of the autoregressive parameter in the discretized model being positive.