This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.

In spite of their importance, third or higher moments of portfolio returns are often neglected in portfolio construction problems due to the computational difficulties associated with them. In this paper, we propose a new robust mean–variance approach that can control portfolio skewness and...

We introduce an envelope condition method (ECM) for solving dynamic programming problems. The ECM method is simple to implement, dominates conventional value function iteration and is comparable in accuracy and cost to Carroll’s (2005) endogenous grid method. Codes are available.

The integrated assessment literature frequently replicates uncertainty by averaging Monte Carlo runs of deterministic models. This Monte Carlo analysis is, in essence, an averaged sensitivity analyses. The approach resolves all uncertainty before the first time period, drawing parameters from a...

I propose a simple method to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with occasionally binding inequality constraints. By augmenting the dynamic system with an auxiliary variable standard algorithms are able to solve the extended dynamic system taking the...

Numerical methods for dynamic programming often use value function iteration and interpolation. We present a novel shape-preserving rational spline approximation method that improves value function iteration in terms of both stability and accuracy compared to more common methods.

I propose a simple method to nonparametrically estimate the utility function in first-price, sealed-bid auctions when bidders’ participation is exogenous. Using a pair of bid densities, each for a different number of bidders, I establish a contraction mapping that converges to the true utility...

We propose to model endogeneity bias using prior distributions of moment conditions. The estimator can be obtained both as a method-of-moments estimator and in a Ridge penalized regression framework. We show the estimator’s relation to a Bayesian estimator.

In this note, we provide the application of HCCME-type refinements to nonlinear GMM models with Bayesian interpretations.

Using GARCH models for density prediction of stock index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between qualities of whole density forecasts, whereas the Bayesian approach exhibits significantly better left-tail forecast...