We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...

We provide empirical evidence on the Lucas Supply Function based on actual inflation surprises for 19 industrial economies. Our results show that the inflation surprise positively correlates with the output gap and that this relationship is negatively related to inflation variability.

We apply a recent quantile autoregression unit root test to US GDP. The test takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock. We find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks like the 2008/2009 crisis have...

This paper extends the Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real-time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies. The results of the empirical application...

Arguing that crises are similar if they are predictable from historical experience, we employ panel logit models to examine similarities in the run-ups to the current global financial crisis and historical banking crises. Asset bubbles are the most common precursors.