This paper introduces nowcasting causality as the mixed-frequency version of instantaneous causality. We analyze the relationship between nowcasting and Granger causality in a mixed-frequency VAR and illustrate its impact on the significance of high-frequency variables in mixed-frequency...

We consider the use of information criteria (IC) on the basis of a semiparametric seasonal error correction model for selecting seasonal cointegrating ranks. Some limit properties of the IC are considered and, through a small Monte Carlo simulation, we evaluate the performance of the IC.

A novel procedure is applied to test for switches between hysteresis and the natural rate theory over more than a century of UK and USA unemployment data. For both the countries we see a period conforming to hysteresis starting in the early 1920s for the UK and 1930 for USA.

The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence parameter are developed in a linear diffusion model under three sampling schemes, long-span, in-fill and double. Simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution gives a more accurate approximation to...

Wald/LM-type tests for a shift in mean often exhibit nonmonotonic power, due to incorrect estimation of long-run variance. In this paper, we propose a robust estimator of long-run variance that is built on nonparametric regression residuals and always converges to the true long-run variance...

Large sample properties are studied for a first-order autoregression (AR(1)) with a root greater than unity. It is shown that, contrary to the AR coefficient, the least-squares (LS) estimator of the intercept and its t-statistic are asymptotically normal without requiring the Gaussian error...

We compare the asymptotic local power of upper-tail unit root tests against an explosive alternative based on ordinary least squares (OLS) and quasi-differenced (QD) demeaning/detrending. We find that under an asymptotically negligible initialisation, the QD-based tests are near asymptotically...

In this paper we extend the FMLS-based CUSUM cointegration test (Xiao and Phillips, 2002) for testing the smooth time-varying cointegration null hypothesis. For this purpose we use Chebyshev time polynomials to specify time-varying coefficients under the null. We derive the limiting distribution...

IVX estimation is used increasingly often in predictive regressions with regressors of unknown persistence. While not exhibiting the second-order bias the OLS estimator has in this setup, IVX estimators have reduced rates of convergence when the regressors are highly persistent. The reduced...

This article tests the linearity assumption underlying the popular heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV). We implement a consistent model specification test that is robust to both distributional and model misspecification. We find that, using a nonparametric HAR-RV...