This paper assesses duration-specific treatment effects of fixed currency regimes on bilateral trade along a duration path of up to 25 years. We find that country-pairs with fixed exchange rate regimes trade more, but only after about 8 years.

This paper applies the 0–1 test for chaos to returns from the German stock market, providing empirical evidence of chaotic structures in the returns of all DAX members. For noise reduction purposes, wavelet denoising is employed prior to the application of the 0–1 test.

This paper contributes to the understanding of the non-linear causal linkage between investors’ sentiment dynamics and stock returns for the US economy. Employing the sentiment index developed by Baker and Wurgler [Baker, M., Wurgler, J., 2007. Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal...

The creation of a common cross-border stock trading platform is found, by use of a Flexible Dynamic Component Correlations (FDCC) model, to have increased long-run trends in conditional correlations between foreign and domestic stock market returns.

In an influential work by Diebold and Inoue (2001), the Markov switching model was shown to exhibit long memory, in terms of the behavior of the second moments of partial sums. The relationship between the Markov switching model and long memory is reexamined here. Common estimators of the long...

This article tests the linearity assumption underlying the popular heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV). We implement a consistent model specification test that is robust to both distributional and model misspecification. We find that, using a nonparametric HAR-RV...

I provide the nonparametric identification of nonlinear dynamic panel data models. I relax the assumption of covariate evolution in Shiu and Hu (2013) by the results of Hu and Shum (2012). The assumptions include first-order Markov assumptions and a restriction on the evolution of the covariate.

This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.

The mean reversion of real exchange rates in G5 countries depends on both countries’ fiscal deficits/surplus in a nonlinear way. When the fiscal policy pushes the real exchange rate to be deviated further away from the equilibrium level, the mean reversion process is faster.

This paper proposes a model selection criterion for models defined by a set of moment conditions that are possibly nonsmooth and discontinuous. The model selection criterion is based on an asymptotically unbiased approximation of the Kullback–Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC), using the...