The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence parameter are developed in a linear diffusion model under three sampling schemes, long-span, in-fill and double. Simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution gives a more accurate approximation to...

This paper proposes a new dividend-based S&P 500 Index return predictor, the implied dividend yield term structure (IDYTS). We show that the IDYTS is a “cleaner” predictor than its conventional counterpart, the dividend price ratio (DP), in that the expected return is a linear combination...

Estimates of agents’ risk aversion differ between market studies and experimental studies. We demonstrate that these estimates can be reconciled through consistent treatment of agents’ propensity for narrow framing.

We investigate whether the use of component forecasts improves the accuracy of a portfolio forecast which uses only aggregate data. The results show that the use of component data improves the accuracy of aggregate forecasts. Furthermore, the long–short trading strategy based on the component...

We use extreme value theory to analyse the tails of a momentum strategy’s return distribution. The asymmetry between the fat left tail and thin right tail strongly reduces a momentum strategy’s prospective utility levels.

This paper shows that when Value-at-Risk constrained institutional investors care about their relative standings among the peer group, more risk averse investors would take more risk, which improves the risk sharing and lowers the volatility.

In this study, we determine the reliability and exogeneity of four popular monetary policy shock measures, namely the narrative series of Romer and Romer (2004), the high-frequency series of Barakchian and Crowe (2013), the high-frequency series of Gertler and Karadi (2015), and the hybrid...

Testing for asymmetric information in insurance markets has become a very important issue in the empirical literature in the last years. We analyze the (private) accident insurance, which has not been analyzed before in the literature, but covers one of the most important risks faced by...

Castagnetti et al. (2015) propose two max-type statistics to test for the presence of a factor structure in a large stationary panel data model. In this contribution, we study the use of Hausman-type statistics based on the CCE estimator of Pesaran (2006) and the IE estimator developed by Bai...

This paper extends Hong et al. (2007)’s model-free test to analyze the contagion. A simulation experiment reveals that our test has reasonable size and good power in finite sample. We use this test and find the strong evidence of contagion between crude oil and stock markets.