Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail-correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more efficient...

The paper studies the interaction between aggregation and persistence pertaining to skip sampling of stock variables as well as temporal aggregation of flow variables for the generalized fractional processes. We show that, for skip sampling, the long memory feature at the zero frequency can...

In this paper we propose a new methodology in improving the Diffusion Index forecasting model (Stock and Watson, 2002a, 2002b) using hard thresholding with robust KVB statistic for regression hypothesis tests (Kiefer et al., 2000). The new method yields promising results in the context of long...

We proposed a method to estimate extreme conditional quantiles by combining quantile GARCH model of Xiao and Koenker (2009) and extreme value theory (EVT) approach. We first estimate the latent volatility process using the information of intermediate quantiles. We then apply EVT to the tail...

Amid its rapidly increasing usage and immense public interest the subject of Bitcoin has raised profound economic and societal issues. In this paper we undertake economic and econometric modelling of Bitcoin prices. As with many asset classes we show that Bitcoin exhibits speculative bubbles....

This paper employs panel methods that address/mitigate heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to determine the direction and sign of long-run causality between transport energy consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. Granger-causality was determined to run from GDP to energy.

We propose an empirical likelihood-based method of inference for comparing inequality between two populations. A series of Monte Carlo experiments are used to assess our method’s finite sample performance. We illustrate our approach using some Canadian household income data.

In this paper we consider the problem of interpreting the signs of the estimated coefficients in multivariate time series regressions where the regressors are correlated. Using a continuous time model, we argue that focusing on the signs of individual coefficients in such regressions could be...

I provide the nonparametric identification of nonlinear dynamic panel data models. I relax the assumption of covariate evolution in Shiu and Hu (2013) by the results of Hu and Shum (2012). The assumptions include first-order Markov assumptions and a restriction on the evolution of the covariate.

We investigate the relationship between female labour force participation and economic growth in the South Mediterranean countries with a two-step methodology of econometric exercise and general equilibrium modelling. Econometric estimations on female labour participation confirm the U-shaped...