Does higher income cause democracy? Accounting for the dynamic nature and high persistence of income and democracy, we find a statistically significant positive relation between income and democracy for a postwar period sample of up to 150 countries. Our results are robust across different...

In the context of a single equation in a system of simultaneous equations there is evidently some confusion in the literature as to the correct approach to the problem of prediction. Here we explore this problem and compare three different approaches to it. We also relate this discussion to...

This note shows that two ways of simulation based bias correction–indirect inference and bootstrap bias correction–are equivalent for two-stage-least-squares, as well as k-class estimators for the standard linear model with endogenous regressors.

This note derives the correct limit distributions of the Anderson–Hsiao (1981) levels and differences instrumental variable estimators, provides comparisons showing that the levels IV estimator has uniformly smaller variance asymptotically as the cross section (n) and time series (T) sample...

This paper shows that an asymmetric group debt contract, where one borrower co-signs for another, but not vice versa, leads to heterogeneous matching. The analysis suggests that micro finance organizations can achieve the first best by offering asymmetric group contracts.

We study the effects of economic shocks on civil conflict at the subnational level using a panel dataset of 5689 administrative regions from 53 African countries with yearly observations from 1992 to 2010. We find that economic shocks, measured by nighttime light intensity and instrumented by...

We consider the effect of population age distribution in inclusive wealth accounting. Numerical results demonstrate that the wealth of nations with an aging demographic structure, as well as those with a rapidly increasing working-age generation, may have been overestimated.

Recent research has established the importance of perceived (as opposed to actual) returns as a determinant of educational investments. We analyze data from India to highlight gender disparities in the perceived returns to education and the salience of productive characteristics.

Firms informality is pervasive in Bangladesh. We implemented an information campaign on registration and find that the treatment made firms more aware, but had no impact on registration. Low benefits and high indirect costs appear to be barriers to formality.

In Uttar Pradesh, teams of four are engaged to dig soil under the NREGA programme. In one treatment spouses work together; in the other treatment they work in separate teams. Working with spouses is associated with significantly higher output.