Lahiri, Kajal; Monokroussos, George; Zhao, Yongchen - In: Economics Letters 118 (2013) 1, pp. 219-221
While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...
