This paper proposes a cumulative sum (CUSUM) based statistic to test if there is a common variance change-point in panel data models. Asymptotic distribution is derived under the null hypothesis and the consistency of the test is proven under the alternative hypothesis. Monte Carlo experiment is...

Although linearly interpolated series are often used in economics, little has been done to examine the effects of interpolation on time-series properties and on statistical inference. We show that linear interpolation of a trend stationary series superimposes a ‘periodic’ structure on the...

This paper studies the cyclicality of aggregate real wages in Japan. By using both static and dynamic approaches, I measure comovements between real wages and business cycle indicators. This paper finds that while real wages constructed using the consumer price index and the GDP deflator are...

In this paper, we study the functional central limit theorem for ARMA–GARCH processes. We prove that, under the finite second moment assumption, the stationary ARMA–GARCH process is geometricallyL2-NED and that the functional central limit theorem holds.

In the context of a single equation in a system of simultaneous equations there is evidently some confusion in the literature as to the correct approach to the problem of prediction. Here we explore this problem and compare three different approaches to it. We also relate this discussion to...

This paper develops new model selection criteria for regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We prove the selection consistency of the introduced criteria and evaluate their performance by simulation. The results suggest that the new criteria may bring significant improvement...

This paper revisits testability of complementarity in economic models with multiple equilibria studied by Echenique and Komunjer (2009). We find that Echenique and Komunjer’s (2009) testable implications on extreme quantiles can be implied by a weaker version of their tail condition without...

This paper proposes a homotopy method for implementing counterfactual experiments in empirical models with multiple equilibria. A key assumption is that the equilibrium selection function does not jump discontinuously between equilibria as we continuously change the structural parameters.

We propose a HAC estimator for the covariance matrix of the fixed effects estimator in a panel data model with unobserved fixed effects and errors that are both serially and spatially correlated.

In this study, we determine the reliability and exogeneity of four popular monetary policy shock measures, namely the narrative series of Romer and Romer (2004), the high-frequency series of Barakchian and Crowe (2013), the high-frequency series of Gertler and Karadi (2015), and the hybrid...