Showing 1 - 10 of 163
This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a … data for a wide range of specifications. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011072104
The aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011072424
This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010708762
This article proposes an econometric analysis of the demand for mobility in the aviation sector. The role played by different variables (GDP, jet-fuel prices, exogenous shocks, market maturity) on air traffic is estimated using dynamic panel-data modeling. GDP appears to have a positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074078
This paper quantifies the effects on welfare of misspecified monetary policy objectives in a stylized DSGE model. We show that using inappropriate objectives generates relatively large welfare costs. When expressed in terms of ‘consumption equivalent’ units, these costs correspond to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010707497
This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706442
This paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and price volatility in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets when using high-frequency data. By regressing various realized volatility measures (with/without jumps) on trading volume and trading frequency, our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011072230
highlight the importance of the jump component in forecasting the volatility at different horizons. In this paper, we extend the … methodology developed by Maheu and McCurdy (2011) to measure the information content of intraday data in forecasting the density … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074092
this paper, we assess the forecasting ability of several classes of time series models for electricity wholesale spot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010795027
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706857