This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications. In order to...

Globalization probably had less impact on regional inequalities than fiscal distortions

Depuis 1995 le processus euroméditerranéen est en panne. Ce retard pourrait être facteur de tensions économiques, mais surtout politique et sociales. Débat sur la feuille de route des 5 pays du nord et des 5 pays du sud de la Méditerranée qui pourraient constituer la charpente d'une...

The organization of securities markets has not benefited from the feigned attempts of reform presented by authorities since the outbreak of the current crisis. However, speculative opportunities like the risks incurred also depend on the markets on which one operates. The Markets in Financial...

Analyse polémique des instructions administratives sur la finance islamique

In this article, tests for globalization and contagion are separated using an ex ante definition of crises, and contagion tests are neutralized with respect to globalization effects. A large database is constructed to study the stability of correlation matrices for four asset classes : equities,...

We analyze empirically the determinants of Eurozone Treasury bills yields. Market microstructure as well as macroeconomic variables are found to significantly impact yields. Secondary trading in a centralized transparent electronic limit order book enhances liquidity and thus reduce yields....

Because IPO mechanisms determine both the initial trading price and the allocation of newly-listed firms' shares, they have financial and strategic consequences for shareholders. For that reason, it is of interest to analyse the relative advantages and disadvantages of the different procedures...

Increasing internally generated goodwill (IGG) is another way of depicting the rising gap between market and accounting values sometimes referred as the “book-to-market black box”. Existing methods propose to value internally generated goodwill as the present value of abnormal earnings...

Asset allocation contribution to ex-post performance is of primary importance. Nobody denies its role, yet the subject of allocating assets remains controversial. To some contenders, the added value stems only from strategic asset allocation which aims at providing the long-term average exposure...