The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson’s Credit Portfolio View model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic...

We use several measures to compare the performance of a large set of Dow Jones Islamic indexes to selected benchmarks. We test the performance over the whole period and then focus on extreme events. We identify extreme events as the 100 lowest and the 100 highest conventional World Indexes daily...

This article is concerned with modeling the dynamic and distributional properties of daily spot and forward electricity prices across European wholesale markets. Prices for forward contracts are extracted from a unique database from a major energy trader in Europe. Spot and forward returns are...

The recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts’ anticipations. Literature on this subject underlines optimism in the financial analyst community. In this work, our significant contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias...

Adding volatility exposure to an equity portfolio offers interesting opportunities for long-term investors. This article discusses the advantages of adding a long volatility strategy for a protection to a global European equity portfolio and to specific equity portfolios based in "core" or...

We examine the effects of collateral provision as a potential channel between funding liquidity tensions and the scarcity of market liquidity. This channel consists in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants that...

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications. In order to...

Empirical evidence shows that fundamental models have produced disappointing results over the past 20 years while carry trade strategies have performed superbly. But the real picture is much more complex. In fact, the track records of both strategies have varied considerably. This article shows...

A discrete time probabilistic model, for optimal equity allocation and portfolio selection, is formulated so as to apply to (at least) reinsurance. In the context of a company with several portfolios (or subsidiaries), representing both liabilities and assets, it is proved that the model has...