This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the PPP hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics under the EMS. Given the non-stationarity and the non-linearities characterizing the foreign exchange rate dynamics, this question is studied using a MS-ECM model: it...

In the late 1990s, controversies among academics and policymakers were focused to a large extent on the "pros and cons" of adopting a monetary regime of complete and official dollarization in many emerging countries. Conversely, towards the mid-2000s de-dollarization is one of the main themes of...

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect...

Empirical evidence shows that fundamental models have produced disappointing results over the past 20 years while carry trade strategies have performed superbly. But the real picture is much more complex. In fact, the track records of both strategies have varied considerably. This article shows...

The European Union enforced respect of human rights and democratic principles an essential elements of all its preferential and non preferential trading agreements since the beginning of the 90's. In all EU external agreements, an essential element would imply that the EU can impose sanctions...