We use several measures to compare the performance of a large set of Dow Jones Islamic indexes to selected benchmarks. We test the performance over the whole period and then focus on extreme events. We identify extreme events as the 100 lowest and the 100 highest conventional World Indexes daily...

Poisson processes are used in various application fields applications (public health biology, reliability and so on). In their homogeneous version, the intensity process is a deterministic constant. In their inhomogeneous version, it depends on time. To allow for an endogenous evolution of the...

In this paper, we show how a complete and exact Bayesian analysis of a parametric mixture model is possible in some cases when components of the mixture are taken from exponential families and when conjugate priors are used. This restricted set-up allows us to show the relevance of the Bayesian...

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an assumed model (Gelman 2008). The Bayesian perspective is thus...

The aggregation of consistent individual judgements on logically interconnected propositions into a collective judgement on the same propositions has recently drawn much attention. Seemingly reasonable aggregation procedures, such as propositionwise majority voting, cannot ensure an equally...

The article discusses the views of statistics professors Andrew Gelman and Christian P. Robert about the intemperate anti-Bayesian statement appeared on the book of probability theory by mathematician William Feller. It notes that they explore Feller's words along with similar remarks by others...

The recent observed decline of business cycle variability suggests that broad macroeconomic risk may have fallen as well. This may in turn have some impact on equity risk premia. We investigate the latent structures in the volatilities of the business cycle and stock market valuations by...

Our aim is to analyze the link between optimism and risk aversion in a subjective expected utility setting and to estimate the average level of optimism when weighted by risk tolerance. Its estimation leads to a non-trivial statistical problem. We start from a large lottery survey (1536...