In this paper, we implement Granger causalty tests using panel data as methodology perfected by Hurlin (2004, 2005) and Hurlin and Venet(2004). We consider the bilateral trade patterns of the European Union with 17 countries over the period 1976-2000. We show that for the whole sample, there are...

This paper highlights the role of capital outflows in creating periods of turbulence by forcing emerging economies to raise massive funds abroad. First, we present stylised facts related to the capital outflows from the emerging economies. Then, we carry out a breakdown of the balance of...

Le terme de « gouvernance » trouve son origine dans l’ancien français et, d’après « Le Robert », désignait l’action de piloter un navire en manœuvrant le gouvernail. Acclimaté outre Atlantique, le concept resurgit dans les années quatre-vingt-dix pour désigner la gestion des...

L’étude analyse les principaux déterminants du taux de change réel et modélise les effets de la politique de change du Cameroun sur ses équilibres externe et interne. Après une brève revue de la littérature sur les travaux sur les taux de change réel. Les techniques d’analyse de la...

The article discusses the views of statistics professors Andrew Gelman and Christian P. Robert about the intemperate anti-Bayesian statement appeared on the book of probability theory by mathematician William Feller. It notes that they explore Feller's words along with similar remarks by others...

The missionary zeal of many Bayesians of old has been matched, in the other direction, by an attitude among some theoreticians that Bayesian methods were absurd—not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples, beginning with Feller's classic text on...

We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives posterior concentration rates for the marginal densities, that...

We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives posterior concentration rates for the marginal densities, that...

The choice of the summary statistics in Bayesian inference and in particular in ABC algorithms is paramount to produce a valid outcome. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions on those statistics for the corresponding Bayes factor to be convergent, namely to asymptotically select the true...

The issue of using informative priors for estimation of mixtures at multiple time points is examined. Several different informative priors and an independent prior are compared using samples of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. Measurements of aerosol PSDs refer...